Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.775448 3.246429 3.768990 4.391216 5.111410 5.918267 6.890306
2025-12-07 2.007124 2.624747 3.384939 4.386938 5.670400 7.256635 9.363282
2025-12-14 1.528478 2.191950 3.081359 4.355192 6.126562 8.495667 11.896950
2025-12-21 1.222767 1.896521 2.867373 4.358489 6.579394 9.751002 14.607118
2025-12-28 1.091799 1.811005 2.913253 4.709699 7.545137 11.823621 18.736813
2026-01-04 0.936082 1.650803 2.809319 4.801708 8.115096 13.367898 22.273561
2026-01-11 0.812822 1.516197 2.716208 4.883385 8.662159 14.925694 26.014243
2026-01-18 0.703706 1.383444 2.599856 4.898820 9.086977 16.320299 29.645115
2026-01-25 0.607609 1.255420 2.468155 4.860336 9.401076 17.550185 33.128376
2026-02-01 0.499217 1.083201 2.225908 4.576291 9.220004 17.870555 35.011522
2026-02-08 0.424577 0.964723 2.066523 4.423393 9.257344 18.580263 37.679236
2026-02-15 0.373455 0.886239 1.973894 4.387575 9.513979 19.725612 41.302621
2026-02-22 0.346318 0.857986 1.985996 4.581539 10.286651 22.016577 47.562878
2026-03-01 0.304472 0.788580 1.899105 4.551207 10.589008 23.410571 52.207752
2026-03-08 0.267818 0.724459 1.813400 4.509763 10.861084 24.776586 56.973805
2026-03-15 0.238892 0.673842 1.750444 4.510314 11.226355 26.385746 62.466667
2026-03-22 0.233277 0.682839 1.832824 4.872212 12.482957 30.115890 73.134146
2026-03-29 0.214141 0.651475 1.809065 4.966915 13.111447 32.495534 81.004245
2026-04-05 0.196634 0.621175 1.782941 5.051168 13.725341 34.914064 89.256893
2026-04-12 0.178254 0.584601 1.733918 5.067072 14.167359 36.973946 96.895424
2026-04-19 0.159950 0.544480 1.668317 5.027307 14.457885 38.696479 103.910505
2026-04-26 0.135424 0.479576 1.520894 4.733885 14.023848 38.542846 106.174643
2026-05-03 0.118370 0.435205 1.425882 4.575932 13.939942 39.278531 110.823879